By Reggie Bentley (Notre Dame '12) –
The fencers in the 2013 NCAA men’s foil event have the honor and misery of competing in what is probably the strongest NCAA men’s foil field ever assembled. This year’s competition includes three former NCAA individual champions, three Olympians, and numerous former team champions. Suffice it to say that it is very likely several former champions of the individual event may very well not make the final four (semifinals).
It therefore goes without saying that any predictions about this year’s results are difficult to make at best. We have some help, however, with the completion of one day of the competition — but there was no surprise Thursday about one fencer: Gerek Meinhardt. After an undefeated first day, Notre Dame’s finest came out first in the field, just ahead of freshman Michael Dudey of Princeton. Dudey is one of several freshmen to excel in the tournament this year, along with Meinhardt’s former teammate and fellow Olympian, Alexander Massialas (Stanford), who recorded 12 victories for his school.
Penn State’s foil duo dominance came as no surprise either. David Willette and Miles Chamley-Watson have put together some of the more impressive combined records in previous years, and this year seems to be no exception with a combined 23 victories in the first day alone. And what of the past two year’s NCAA individual champions? Ariel DeSmet of Notre Dame finished Thursday with 9/15 wins in 9th place, and Zain Shaito (last year’s champion) finished with one more victory at 6th place, finishes which only demonstrate the overwhelming strength of the field.
As for top-four predictions, anything could happen given the number of big matchups still to come tomorrow. The difference between 4th and 9th is a mere three bouts, and Meinhardt seems to be the only lock for the semifinals, although even he has some tough bouts on the way. Notre Dame and Ohio State both still have to fence Penn State as well as Stanford, match ups that could yield massive bout swings in any direction.
Although it is hard to bet against experience, given Princeton freshman Dudey’s strong showing on Thursday against Chamley-Watson, Ariel DesMet, and the Ohio State team, as well as an overall second-place finish, it would take a major mishap to keep him out of the fours with Meinhardt. As for the remaining two spots, the matches amongst the current 3rd-6th placeholders likely will determine who is given a chance at the finals, and it would not hurt any of their chances to snag the first defeat from a red-hot Meinhardt. Ultimately, any predictions in this tournament are a stab in the dark — it is, after all, March Madness.