Columbia senior epeeist Lydia Kopecky was gracious enough to provide us with her insight and projections on the 2013 NCAA women's epee field. Kopecky had a disappointing and sudden end to her own 2013 season, placing lower than expected at the Northeast Regional following a very strong season leading up to that point. The two-time All-American and there-time NCAA qualifier currently is 9th in the U.S. women's epee ranking and is a regular competitor at international tournaments.
(see CF360 front page for links to other 2013 NCAA guest columns)
By Lydia Kopecky (Columbia '13)
By far, the NCAA field for women's epee in 2013 is stronger than it hass been in years. With two Olympic medalists, three former NCAA individual champions, countless U.S. National Team members, and many foreign national team members, I predict the results of this weekend are going to come down to indicators (total points margin). Because of how strong the field is, I believe there won't be a decisive and predicable top four, but rather an extremely strong top-8 that is fighting for every touch. The pressure will be high and I think there will be some unpredictable 5-touch upsets from the beginning, making every future bout count if anyone will be in line for a title. I predict that all of the top-8 will be seasoned NCAA fencers and that experience will be key to success at this tournament.
The favorite to win is Courtney Hurley, a senior at Notre Dame. Ranked first in the U.S. and 21st in the world, coming off of a team bronze medal at the Olympics and the 2011 NCAA champion, Courtney will be looking to secure a second and final NCAA title and will no doubt be in the final four. Courtney's experience, speed, strength, and tactical decisions are unparalleled in the competition. She is a tried and true winner.
Katarzyna Dabrowa, the 2012 NCAA champion, also will be ruthlessly looking to defend her title. Dabrowa uses a lefty french grip and I predict she will come out of the 23 round-robin bouts in the top four. She is extremely athletic and these marathon tournaments really go in her favor.
Ewa Nelip, in her final year at Notre Dame as well, I predict will dominate the competition. She has been an All-American for all of her previous years at the NCAA Championships, with two final-four performances. I believe Ewa will be striving to finish on top in her final year. Currently 54th in the world (a significant ranking for any college fencer), Ewa is very experienced and a competitive fighter.
Marg Guzzi, a senior at Penn State, has never not made the final in her time at college. She was the 2010 NCAA Champion and runner-up in the past two championships. I believe she will continue this tradition with her calm, friendly demeanor and extreme athleticism.
Another fencer who will definitely be in the top-8 and might slip into the top four is Katherine Holmes (Princeton). A fierce competitor, Kat will be looking to repeat her first team All-America (semifinalist) performance of last year. She is a difficult fencer to figure out to five touches and I believe she will excel in this competition again.
As always, someone to look out for is Stanford fencer Francesca Bassa. Where so much of this tournament is decided by a single touch, Francesca's fiesty ability to win one-touch bouts is unparalleled and she will definitely be at the top of the competition this year.
Another contender will be Princeton veteran Susie Scanlan. While Susie hasn't competed as much this year, she will be looking to claw her way into the top four as well. As another of our competitors with an Olympic team bronze medal to her name, Susie is experienced and thrives under pressure. Princeton also is looking for the first time in a many years to win NCAAs and is a top contender, so there will be a lot of support out there for Princeton fencers.
Two additional fencers that have the ability to be on the podium are Alina Ferdman (St. John's) and Emma Vaggo (Harvard). Alina, who won the tough NCAA Northeast Regional, has a strong and aggressive style. She will be well matched against anyone in the competition who doesn't fight harder than she does. Vaggo, previously on the Swedish National Team, is technically and tactfully strong and could easily finish towards the top.
However with this competition being a pressure cooker and it's epee (i.e., often a greater probability for randomness) and due to the fact that the round-robin are 5-touch bouts (which anyone can win), I wouldn't be surprised if there were several other fencers who popped out and made it to the top of the competition … such as Dina Bazarbayeva (Northwestern) or Norwegian Caroline Piaseka (Ohio State). It'll all come down to who can fight the hardest, come back the strongest, keep their intensity for all 23 bouts, and not let the pressure or duration of the tournament get them down.