Based on the various Regional seeds, it appears that Notre Dame and Ohio State are on pace to qualify the maximum 12 fencers for the NCAA Championships (assuming their various fencers maintain spots within the regional allocations).
Penn State's seedings include the maximum two fencers in allocation range for five of the six weapons (all but men's epee) – but PSU's second men's epeeist, James Moody, is seeded #8 and needs only to bump up one spot to be within the allocation (Duke's Tristan Jones is the #7 men's epee seed). Even if Moody does qualify, the Nittany Lions still could earn only one NCAA spot in this weapon – as teammate Maxwell Dettiger is the #6 seed and needs to perform well to maintain a spot within the allocation.
Columbia likewise is in danger of earning only 11 bids, again based on the seeding and allocation numbers. The Lions have struggled with their depth at men's sabre this season, with defending NCAA champ Jeff Spear a strong #1 for the squad. Teammate Alex Rudnicki is seeded #12 for the Northeast Regional, essentially two spots out of allocation range. NYU's Benjamin Radding enters the Regional in the final allocation spot (at #9), followed by Vassar's Alex Snow and another NYU fencer (Hugo Rodrigues). Since NYU has yet another fencer already in the allocation range (#4 Sam Roukas), Rudnicki would not have to finish higher than (hypothetically) Rodrigues – since NYU already would have two entrants.
Moody and Rudnicki's qualification chances will be based on the NCAA formula that factors in regular-season performance (40%) and Regional results (60%). Even if either of them fails to qualify within the Regional allocations, they still could gain entry into the NCAA field via the at-large process (which adds two fencers per weapon, from throughout the nation, to fill out the 24-fencer field in each weapon).
St. John's – despite losing a large chunk of its NCAA Tournament contingent from 2008 – is a darkhorse candidate to make a run at the NCAAs, led by elite sabreists Daryl Homer and Dagmara Wozniak, along with All-America epeeist Stanley Vaksman. The Red Storm are on track to qualify nine for the NCAAs, assuming their fencers stay within allocation range. Women's epee All-American Joanna Guy easily could bump that total to 10, as she is seeded #9 – one spot outside the allocation (Cornell's Tasha Hall is the #8 seed). Of course, Guy could end up being a strong at-large candidate is she misses an allocation position.
SJU might be a year away from making a serious push at the NCAA title, as the Red Storm have only one men's foil entrant in the Northeast Regional field.
Based on Regional seedings and allocations, here is how some of the top teams are projected to fare in regards to NCAA entry (if there is no movement in allocation standings). Note that these numbers don't account for potential at-large additions:
12 fencers – Notre Dame and Ohio State
11 fencers – Columbia (1 in men's sabre) and Penn State (1 in men's epee)
9 fencers – St. John's (1 in men's foil, women's foil and women's epee), Harvard (1 in m-foil, m-sabre & w-sabre) and Penn (1 in m-epee; 0 in w-epee)
7 fencers – Princeton (2 in m-epee, w-foil, w-epee; 1 in m-foil) and Stanford (2 in m-sabre, 1 in all other weapons)
4 fencers – Duke (2 in m-sabre, 1 in m-foil and w-sabre)