Homestanding Penn State will sleep with the day-1 lead at the 2009 NCAA Fencing Championships, after winning nearly 75% of its bouts (61 of 84) over the course of four rounds (14 bouts per entry) in Thursday's action. Ohio State stands in second place, only five wins back (56) while Notre Dame is the third-place team (47). PSU, OSU and ND are the only teams that qualified the maximum 12 entrants.
Columbia (11 entries; five men/six women) has 40 wins and is within striking distance of the Irish. The Lions could make a big push over the final two days (when the women compete), in this four-day battle. St. John's qualified five men and five women, but the Red storm stumbled to 7th-place on Thursday (33), one win behind Stanford and five back of Penn.
Penn State narrowly held the midday lead (44-42, two wins ahead of OSU), thanks to a 25-3 performance from the Buckeye sabreists (PSU was 24-4). The Nittany Lions then padded their cushion, led by 23 wins in foil to go with 14 in epee (OSU also had 14 epee wins, plus 17 in foil). Notre Dame was led by its foilists (20 wins) and had 17 sabre victories, but the ND epee duo managed only 10 wins in 28 bouts.
Columbia's lone sabre entrant (defending NCAA champ Jeff Spear) went 10-4, with the Lions also picking up 16 wins in foil and 14 in epee. St. John's flexed its muscle in sabre (19 wins), besting its combined wins in the other two weapons (five in foil/one fencer; nine in epee) by four victories. Penn used a more balanced effort (15 sabre wins, 13 in foil, 10 in epee) to finish the day ahead of SJU, while Stanford had a strong day in sabre (16 wins, also 12 in epee and six in foil).
The gap between the top-two teams would be closer, if not for an uncharacteristic day by OSU senior men's foilist Andras Horanyi (more on that later) – who won only half of his bouts on Thursday and will be hard-pressed to reach Friday's four-fencer medal round.
The mid-day withdrawal of Duke's Dorian Cohen likely won't have a bearing on the team championship – as OSU, ND and Columbia each are going to have two vacated bouts while PSU will lose one (SJU, which is unlikely to figure in the team-tile race, fenced Cohen twice on Thursday, prior to his injury).
Bouts versus fencers from the other top-contending teams can prove crucial – as they essentially provide a two-point swing and carry an extra dose of momentum (or, on the flip side, frustration). Penn State's current lead is due in large part to its success in bouts vs. the double-digit-entry teams (15-7, for a +8 margin) – compared to a 16-14 showing by OSU in such bouts and an even lower efficiency in key bouts for ND (11-17). Columbia went 10-12 on Thursday vs. the top teams, while SJU posted a similar mark (12-14 in those key bouts).
Head-to-Head vs. Double-Digit-Entry Teams (day-1)
Penn State ... 15-7 (+8 margin) ... 5-3 vs. both OSU and ND, 5-1 vs. SJU, DNF vs. COL
Ohio State ... 16-14 (+2 margin) ... 6-2 vs. ND, 3-5 vs. PSU, 3-5 vs. COL, 4-2 vs. SJU
St. John's ... 12-14 (-2 margin) ... 1-5 vs. PSU, 2-4 vs. OSU, 4-2 vs. ND, 5-3 vs. COL
Columbia ... 10-12 (-2 margin) ... 5-3 vs. OSU, 2-4 vs. ND, 3-5 vs. COL, DNF vs. OSU
Notre Dame ... 11-17 (-6 margin) ... 3-5 vs. PSU, 2-6 vs. OSU, 4-2 vs. COL. 2-4 vs. SJU
On paper, Penn State has a more veteran women's team than Ohio State – so PSU certainly could make up a potential deficit over the final two days. But first of all, the Nittany Lions need to stay near the top of the standings on Friday and that could be a challenge, as PSU has the most Friday matchups (6) against double-digit-entry teams: vs. Columbia in all three weapons, ND in foil, St. John's in epee and OSU in sabre. Columbia also has the chance to make up some ground (or slip back further), thanks to the three-weapon showdown with PSU, plus other key Friday matchups vs. ND (epee) and OSU (sabre). ND and OSU each have four key weapon matches slated for Friday, while SJU has only three.
Key Friday Matchups (day-2):
MEN'S FOIL
Penn State vs. Notre Dame
Penn State vs. Columbia
Notre Dame vs. St. John's
Ohio State vs. St. John's
MEN'S EPEE Penn State vs. Columbia Notre Dame vs. Columbia Penn State vs. St. John's
MEN'S SABRE Penn State vs. Ohio State Penn State vs. Columbia Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Ohio State vs. Columbia
One final factor that can separate the top teams is won-loss record during one-touch bouts. Again,Penn State is a leader in this area (especially when compared to OSU):
Day-1 One-Touch Bout Records (double-digit-entry teams)
Columbia ... 9-4 (+5 margin)
Penn State ... 13-9 (+4 margin)
Notre Dame ... 8-9 (-1 margin)
St. John's ... 7-9 (-2 margin)
Ohio State ... 10-16 (-6 margin)